Lung cancer prevalence in New South Wales (Australia): Analysis of past trends and projection of future estimates.

BACKGROUND To provide a temporal analysis of lung cancer prevalence over two decades in New South Wales (NSW), Australia and projections of future lung cancer prevalence up to 2017. METHODS Data for lung cancer cases diagnosed in 1983-2007 with survival follow-up to the end of 2007 were extracted from the population-based NSW Central Cancer Registry. Five-year prevalence was calculated by the counting method at five time points (1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007) for which data were available, then historical prevalence trends (1987-2007) were extrapolated into 2008-2017. RESULTS For men, 5-year prevalence of lung cancer in NSW increased slowly in number from 1748 in 1987 to 2151 in 2007, although there was a 15% reduction in prevalence rates over the same time period. For women, there was a greater increase both in number (2.55 times) and rates (88%) between 1987 and 2007. Despite the narrowing gap in lung cancer prevalence between men and women, in 2007 the 5-year prevalence for men was still higher than that for women. However, if the past trends continue, it is expected that in 2017 the 5-year lung cancer prevalence for women in NSW will surpass that for men. CONCLUSIONS Our projections suggest that by 2017 the prevalence of lung cancer for women will be greater than that of men in NSW Australia. Further strengthening the current tobacco control measures should be considered a high priority in Australia, particularly for adolescents and women.